美國新保守派健將PAUL WOLFOWITZ最近的文章所透露的訊息

                         美國新保守派健將PAUL WOLFOWITZ最近的文章所透露的訊息

一

曾擔任小布希政府的副國防部長、現在擔任「美台商會」(The U.S.-Taiwan Business Council)主席的美國新保守派健將Paul Wolfowitz日前在「華爾街日報」發表了一篇文章，他寫的這一篇被登在”OPINION”的版面。

建州運動現在把Paul的文章轉貼在下面(請看附錄)，該文有兩個標題，正式的標題被平面版的報紙所用，在括弧內那個標題則是被在10/9/2014出現的網路版新聞所用。我們以前說過: (1)美國不少媒體在電子版新聞報導中使用的標題，常與平面版的不同，(2)不少媒體的電子版新聞報導通常比平面版提早一天出現，(3)兩種版本的新聞報導的內容通常完全相同，不過有時某種版面的新聞報導的最後一段或最後兩、三段並沒有在另一種版面出現。

二

做為「美台商會」的主席，Paul寫這篇文章的主要目的是，要呼籲華府對台灣採取更具企圖心的步驟，例如，與台灣簽署一些新的貿易協定(指Bilateral Investment Agreement與Trans-Pacific Partnership等)以及授權對台軍售，他說: “But despite periodic statements of support, the U.S. has been unwilling to take more ambitious steps—such as signing new trade agreements and authorizing arms sales.”

Paul 的文章的起頭第一段說: “Taiwan celebrates its National Day on Friday commemorating the 103rd anniversary of the Wuchang Uprising, which eventually brought down the Qing Dynasty and led in 1912 to the creation of the Republic of China—today more commonly known as Taiwan. Taiwan’s remarkable economic progress was followed by the evolution to what is now a thriving democracy, the first in a Chinese society. It is one of the great success stories of the past 50 years.”

這一段呈現的是「中華民國史觀」，我們因此可以看到Paul所認識的台灣仍是「中華民國」這個時代錯置的殘留物(anachronism)，我們不知要到何時美國的政界菁英的多數才能普遍接受台灣人的史觀，而非接受與台灣人的利益站在對立面的「中華民國史觀」或「中國人的史觀」，很顯然，若要改善或扭轉這種對台灣人不利的情勢，台灣人與台美人還有很大的努力空間。

三

Paul在第二段說: “If the U.S. doesn’t change course, the next 18 months could witness a significant increase in U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan.” 他的意思是: 若華府現在不改變做法，那麼18個月後，我們可能就會見證美中的緊張關係因台灣而有重大的升高。

這句話很有意思，有必要加以解讀，我們希望我們能正確解讀。 ---Read More--- 第一，18個月後，算一算，就是在2016年5月台灣的領導人就任之後。那又為什麼美中關係可能會因為台灣而升高緊張關係呢?顯然，Paul與美國政界與國安事務界的許多人一樣，已看好民進黨將會再度執政，再度執政的民進黨必會充分配合美國的「重返亞洲」的政策，向美國採購新的武器系統，努力建軍，跟日本、菲律賓等國一樣，善盡保衛自由民主陣營的責任，但也會因此遭到正在進行「第三度合作」的中國國共兩黨瘋狂的聯手抵制，並因而導致美中的緊張關係升高。

為了避免這種情況發生或為了降低緊張關係，最可行的辦法是，在歐巴馬與馬英九卸任前，敲定並執行重大軍售案，這是目前美國方面與台灣方面若干股勢力在努力的方向與項目。

在歐巴馬與馬英九卸任前敲定並實行重大軍售案，這是不得不然，台灣人與台派必須欣然接受，即便老K這幫黨政軍敗類與軍火販子會從中取得天文數字的回扣(這是台灣納稅人的血汗錢)，而且還會把軍事機密賣給老共，又賺到另一筆髒錢，我們台灣人為了台灣與美台關係的大局，現階段也只有如此，這種令人吐血的情況只有等到有一天「台灣加入美國」的主張實現時，才會結束。

倘若在歐巴馬與馬英九卸任前沒有敲定並執行重大軍售案，一旦民進黨再度執政，與老共勾結的、該死的老K又會在立法院進行頑抗與抵制，讓軍購的預算又無法編列，不打緊，華府又會把帳錯算在民進黨政府身上，而且台海緊張情勢及美中的緊張情勢也都會升高。

鄉親們讀到這裡，就又會再度意識到與老共勾結及賣台的老K還有處心積慮要併吞台灣的老共是我們台灣人與台美人的心腹大患，我們若不說服美國菁英層來約束及壓過這群敗類與匪類，我們台灣人必死無葬身之地。

四

Paul這篇文章雖有「中華民國史觀」，不過他仍然注意到”President Ma’s China-centric policies” (馬英九的以中國為中心的政策)，Paul也與多數的美國政界菁英一樣，希望或樂見台灣維持現狀，他說: “The people of Taiwan do not support unification, nor do they favor provoking Beijing by pursuing de jure independence. Almost 90% of the population prefers the status quo.”

台灣建州運動發起人周威霖
David C. Chou
Founder, Formosa Statehood Movement
(an organization devoted in current stage to making Taiwan a territorial commonwealth of the United States)

附錄:

Lax U.S. Policy on Taiwan Invites a Face-Off With China” (“U.S. Taiwan Policy Threatens a Face-Off With China”)
By PAUL WOLFOWITZ
WALL STREET JOURNAL
10/10/2014

----The re-emergence of cross-Strait tensions would threaten stability in East Asia in a fundamental way.


Taiwan celebrates its National Day on Friday commemorating the 103rd anniversary of the Wuchang Uprising, which eventually brought down the Qing Dynasty and led in 1912 to the creation of the Republic of China—today more commonly known as Taiwan. Taiwan’s remarkable economic progress was followed by the evolution to what is now a thriving democracy, the first in a Chinese society. It is one of the great success stories of the past 50 years.

However, Taiwan’s future, and American interests, are imperiled by a lack of U.S. support to counter Taiwanese fears of economic marginalization or to balance the pressure of China’s military buildup and its refusal to renounce the use of force to bring Taiwan under China’s control. If the U.S. doesn’t change course, the next 18 months could witness a significant increase in U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan.

China has dealt with Taiwan’s democracy with more wisdom than it has shown in Hong Kong, but that should not be taken for granted. The U.S. has a stake in China’s continuing to emphasize carrots rather than sticks in its relations with Taiwan, as well as in encouraging moderation in Taiwan.

Next month, Taiwan goes to the polls for countrywide municipal elections that will set the tone for its January 2016 presidential election. The ruling Kuomintang (KMT) is in a precarious position given the deep unpopularity of President Ma Ying-jeou’s government—a result of economic underperformance and food-related scandals that have brought government competence into question. The prime challenger is the Democratic Progressive Party, which is committed in the long term to Taiwan’s de jure independence from China—a position that is anathema in Beijing. The DPP is well positioned to win many major municipal seats, including the crown jewel of Taipei City. Such an outcome would propel the DPP into the lead for the presidential race.

Since 2008 China has concluded multiple cultural and economic deals, including airline agreements resulting in more than 500 weekly flights (compared with almost none in 2008) and a liberalization of tourist visits from China, which took the number of mainland visitors to Taiwan to 2.8 million last year. China pursues a dual strategy of economic carrots, such as improved market access, along with military sticks. The latter include quantitative and qualitative improvements to M-9 and M-11 ballistic missiles based across the Taiwan strait as well as deployment of type 071 amphibious boats. The Chinese navy is also growing in overall strength across the Taiwan Strait.

China hopes to embrace Taiwan more tightly through economic ties while also preparing military options if it decides to take action to accomplish its ultimate goal of unification. Taiwan’s President Ma is also pursuing a dual-track strategy by normalizing cross-Strait relations through economic engagement with China while attempting to balance that engagement with closer ties to the U.S. Sadly, while the U.S. has benefited from reduced tensions, it has not provided the balance Taiwan so badly needs.

America’s hesitance has led to fears of marginalization in Taiwan and criticism of what are viewed as President Ma’s China-centric policies. The people of Taiwan do not support unification, nor do they favor provoking Beijing by pursuing de jure independence. Almost 90% of the population prefers the status quo.

The U.S. should do more to encourage Taiwan to maintain its moderate course, whatever the outcome of next year’s election. But despite periodic statements of support, the U.S. has been unwilling to take more ambitious steps—such as signing new trade agreements and authorizing arms sales. This unwillingness to act appears to be based on a false choice between support for Taiwan and good working relations with China. This sends the wrong signal to Beijing about American resolve, and it could encourage precisely the behavior from Beijing that would provoke the very reaction from Taiwan that Washington hopes to avoid.

The U.S. can and should do several things in the next few months to strengthen its position in this unique trilateral relationship.

The U.S. has frozen its Taiwan trade ties over Taiwan’s refusal to change its laws to allow the import of pork containing the steroid ractopamine, which is blocking the launch of Bilateral Investment Agreement negotiations. The BIA is the bridge to Taiwan’s candidacy as a second-round member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)—a central component of America’s Asia policy. Pork is an important U.S. commodity and needs to be addressed, but linking it to the BIA and allowing it to derail the broader U.S. effort in the region is to miss the forest for the trees. Taiwan membership in the TPP is a core U.S. interest, and it is time to delink pork from the BIA launch.

Taiwan also faces an ominous and growing military threat from China. The U.S. is legally and historically committed “to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability,” yet it has been more than three years since the last U.S. arms sale—the longest period since 1979. Taiwan has asked for fighters to bolster its aging fleet, as well as for U.S. support in asking Congress to approve a plan that would allow for the co-development of a diesel submarine either through the use of a foreign design or of a new U.S. design.

These requests are entirely reasonable and would already have been processed if not for the U.S. giving in to Chinese objections. This weakens Taiwan while emboldening China and in turn leaves Taiwan more dependent on the U.S. for its security.

The re-emergence of cross-Strait tensions would threaten stability in East Asia in a more fundamental way than even the current disputes over islands and territorial waters. Recent events in Hong Kong should be a reminder of Beijing’s capacity for miscalculation, and of how free people may react when their freedom is threatened. The U.S. can help avoid this outcome by being more active in supporting Taiwan.

(Mr. Wolfowitz, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, has served as deputy U.S. secretary of defense, and is currently chairman of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council.)