老共邪門、殘暴、反動與犯錯，對我們台灣人比較有利(上)

                        老共邪門、殘暴、反動與犯錯，對我們台灣人比較有利

一

關於香港問題，建州運動已發表了兩篇文章，今天發表的是第三篇，這三篇都還沒深入地觸及核心問題。我們認為香港真正的問題是: 香港的問題真的是「中國的內政問題」嗎?香港人民有沒有自決的權利?平均素質比較高的香港人真的反而只能做一個垃圾國家的二等國民嗎?香港能否與新加坡一樣，成為一個主權獨立的、做為美國海軍的前進基地的city-state?這些問題，我們今天暫且不談。

建州運動在10/6/2014張貼了一篇文章，標題是:「『紐約時報』有一篇報導，使用”From Tibet to Taiwan, China’s Outer Regions-----“這種可能會引起不知情的讀者誤以為『台灣是中國的一部分』的標題」，我們現在把其中兩段拿出來:

//在台灣，的確還是有一些尚未或不堅決主張或不堅決支持「台灣不與中國進行任何形式的政治聯合」的人，他們之中仍有人對中國、北京或老共存有幻想，我們可以合理地想像或推測，港人的「佔中事件」多少會讓他們的「中國夢」或對中國的幻想破滅或帶來衝擊，這對台灣與台灣人是有利的。//

//但若有人認為「佔中事件」與北京的作為會讓市場佔有率只有個位數的「一國兩制解決模式」在台灣的市場更加萎縮，我們則不那麼認為。我們認為，即便歷年的民調已顯示，心智健全的多數台灣人民拒絕北京提出的所謂的「一國兩制」，但仍有極少數居心叵測的敗類、頭殼壞去的弱智者或心智不健全的人渣加以呼應或支持，這是一個正常社會的結構性異類或異端，他們是無法被教育的、無法被理喻的、無法被說服的賤種，有如過去在印度的種性制度中不幸被歸類為the untouchable的群類，這個呼應或支持所謂的「一國兩制」的群類在台灣社會中會維持大約1%至3%的穩定比例，我們只要把他們認為是不可被接觸的或不宜被接觸的賤種就可以了，把時間放在這些賤種的身上，是大可不必，因為他們犯賤，即便他們之中有不少人也是人模人樣或受過所謂的「高等教育」。//

二

老共是「反中國併吞台灣」的台灣住民的敵人，要把台灣賣給中國、然後把財富轉移到台灣境外去讓他們幾代的子孫在美國享用的那些沒有人性的野心政客也是我們台灣人不共戴天的敵人，這第二類的敵人中有的比較狡猾，他們以「民主」做為護符，他們的標準台詞是「台灣與中國未來要統一，但不是現在」、「台灣與中國要或應統一在自由、民主與均富之下」。這些野心政客的主張與願景在台灣當然也有市場，他們的支持者就是在歷次的民調中支持「台灣現在應該維持現狀，但最終應該統一」這個奇怪的選項的民眾。基本上而言，這類的民眾有深層的中國意識或中國認同，有台灣意識的政治工作者很難去教育、改變或convert他們，所以比較可行的辦法是，讓老共犯錯，老共犯錯他們才比較可能會死心，也就是說，老共的面目越猙獰，老共對中國的維權人士與民運人士的鎮壓越不手軟，老共對中國人民的人權越踐踏，老共對一黨專政的癮頭越大，中國在一黨專政下所產生的結構性貪腐越不堪聞問，台灣內部那些與老共勾結的野心政客與喪心病狂越鼓如簧之舌，也很可能越會讓那些在民調中支持「台灣現在應該維持現狀，但最終應該與中國統一」的民眾反感，換言之，我們認為，台派的政治工作者與其去教育及說服這類的民眾，不如讓老共犯錯[老共的本質是邪惡的與殘暴的，老共的體制也有結構性的與巨大的缺陷，所以他們一定會站在歷史的對立面，一定會反動，一定會犯大錯，這無需任何人鼓勵或幫忙]，把那些天真的民眾趕跑。

因為這樣，所以我們應該樂於見到老共摧殘民主、踐踏中國人與香港人的自由與人權，但請不要誤會，我們這樣說，並非表示我們對被老共鎮壓與欺凌的中國人民、香港人民、圖博人民與東土耳其斯坦人民沒有同情心，相反地，我們很同情他們，也樂見他們將來能擺脫老共[與老中]的統治，並獲得自由與人權。

三

建州運動始終反對任何個人、黨派、政府或國家把台灣與中國扯在一起，也反對任何個人、黨派、政府或國家把台灣與香港、圖博及東土耳其斯坦拿來相提並論。

雖然如此，若老共對香港的學生、青年與民主派的霸道能讓一些仍對老共或老中有不切實際的幻想的台灣人醒悟，並因而唾棄老共與遠離老中，我們還是樂見與歡迎的。

已恢復紙面版的Newsweek周刊今天發表了一篇文章，我們現在把它張貼出來:


“Beijing’s Crushing of Democracy in Hong Kong Sends Chills Through Taiwan”(北京壓碎香港的民主政治，讓台灣背脊發涼)
By Benny Avni 
newsweek.com
October 20, 2014 12:10 PM EDT

The umbrellas are taking their toll on Beijing. The Central Committee may have managed, so far, to avoid major bloodshed in its standoff with Hong Kong demonstrators, but the clash between democracy defenders and guardians of Communist doctrine is reverberating in many of China’s provinces and is dimming its hope of peacefully annexing the independent island of Taiwan and uniting it with the mainland.[民主政治的捍衛者與共產黨教條的守護者在香港的衝突，正在許多中國的省分發生激盪與回響，同時也在讓中國欲與獨立的台灣和平「統一」的希望逐漸黯淡與渺茫。]

The pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong are sending a grim signal to businesspeople in the region. After years of improved commercial ties between Taiwan and its giant neighbor, many Taiwanese sense that the thaw is moving too fast for comfort. The clashes in Hong Kong between the Beijing-backed authorities and demonstrators bode ill for Taiwan’s advocates of further integration with the mainland.[被北京支持的香港當局與示威的民主派在香港的衝突，對台灣那些主張與中國進一步整合的人的前途不利。注: 我們有不同的看法，台灣的民眾越對老共與老中沒興趣，老共收買台灣內部的敗類的價碼會越高，也就是說，那些台灣敗類與人渣的獲利越大。]

Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou has done more than any of his predecessors to ease tensions, signing dozens of treaties with Beijing that seemed unthinkable until very recently. Yet, even before events in Hong Kong started to dominate our television screens in late September, young Taiwanese protested against his cozying up to China, forcing him to rethink a major trade agreement with the Communist monolith the island separated from in 1949. [注: 作者說，台灣是在1949年與中國分離。這種說法是大錯特錯，他完全不知道，從1895年「下關條約」生效後，台灣就與中國不再有統屬的關係，「舊金山和約」且已將「台灣法律地位未定論」予以法制化，台灣並不屬於中國，所以沒有台灣與中國在1949年「分裂」之理。]

Now, as Ma’s Kuomintang party faces a challenge, in a round of local elections on November 29, against candidates of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, the president has sharply rebuked Beijing’s leadership, expressing solidarity with the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. [馬英九猛烈駁斥北京，並對香港民主派與青年學生的「佔中行動」表示支持。注: 從馬英九執政以來的紀錄加以檢視，他只在選舉期間才會小小地冒犯北京與老共，這只是裝模作樣， ---Read More--- 只是為了欺騙中間選民與淺綠民眾，這完全是騙票的算計與行徑，老共當然知道這個道理，所以根本不以為意，只是不痛不癢地數落了一下馬英九，算是過場與交差了事。]

“This is a major test case for the new leadership in China,” said a senior diplomat from the region, who has managed his country’s relations with Beijing. Speaking on condition of anonymity, as criticism of China is a delicate matter in the region, the diplomat said that Xi Jinping, not yet two years in office as China’s leader, seems “unpredictable.” The way he brings the Hong Kong crisis to a conclusion—peaceful or otherwise—will not only put to the test Xi’s ability to handle internal affairs but also China’s relations with its neighbors.

As the Hong Kong crisis grew, Xi displayed his political tin ear by inviting pro-China businessmen from Taiwan to visit the mainland. “One country, two systems” was the best way to realize reunification between the mainland and the independent island, he said. But Hong Kong’s business district was being besieged by protesters—hardly the right time to resell that dubious idea, which China seems to have unilaterally reneged on in Hong Kong.

The “one country, two systems” notion promised complete self-rule in Hong Kong as Britain wound down its control over its former colony in 1997. But the recent clashes in the streets seemed to have ended any hope that Beijing would let the city’s long-established democracy continue to thrive. China insists on handpicking a slate of candidates for an election expected in 2017, while the demonstrators demand that anyone should be allowed to stand for election.

Reacting to Xi’s meeting with Taiwanese supporters, Ma addressed the nation on Taiwan’s National Day. Reversing his usually careful conciliatory tone, he called on Beijing to make the whole of China a constitutional democracy rather than quash democracy in Hong Kong. “China would simply be making good on a pledge made 17 years ago, when they said that for 50 years they would allow rule of Hong Kong by the people of Hong Kong, a high degree of autonomy and election of the chief executive through universal suffrage,” he said.

“Now that the 1.3 billion people [in mainland China] have become moderately wealthy,” Ma added, “they will of course wish to enjoy greater democracy and rule of law. Such a desire has never been a monopoly of the West, but is the right of all humankind.”

It was a bold declaration of principle from a man who has found a way of co-existing with his country’s giant neighbor. “Ma has managed to negotiate over 20 agreements with China, and he did so as an equal,” said New York University professor Jerome Cohen, a veteran China watcher. Under Ma, regular air flights between the island and the mainland increased tourism, Taiwan’s high-tech manufacturers moved major factories to China, and cultural exchanges grew. Trade across the Taiwan Strait totaled $197 billion last year, almost five times the 2002 figure.

But now, “at the time when Ma would love to have an opportunity to meet with Xi, we see him denounce Xi instead,” said Cohen. Even before the Hong Kong demonstrations began in September, as Ma was about to sign a major new pact, the Cross-Strait Services Trade Agreement, many Taiwanese students and civil leaders started fearing that fast economic integration with the mainland would expose Taiwan to too much political pressure from the mainland. [紐約大學法學院教授孔傑榮對馬英九加以吹捧 ，很顯然，他不懂中國文化，不懂中國式的政治，不懂馬英九的工於心計。]

In March, peaceful protests were launched under the banner of the “Sunflower Movement,” forcing Ma to delay signing the trade agreement. The pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, meanwhile, watched the Taiwanese demonstrations carefully, said Vincent Wang, a professor of political science at the University of Richmond. [這位王教授出身台大，早期與台美人走得比較近，但近年來，他站在政治學教授與學者的立場，似乎變得比較中立，不久前，他被洛杉磯的台美人社團邀請，與親台的Daniel Blumenthal同台演說與座談。] The two movements became close, he noted, and their leaders in Taiwan and Hong Kong communicated with each other, exchanging tactical tips and information.

“The Sunflower Movement in Taiwan impressed [a lot of people in the region] by conducting demonstrations peacefully,” Wang said, speaking during a recent visit to Taiwan. The conduct of Taiwan’s protesters was one of the reasons the “demonstrations in Hong Kong were remarkably polite and peaceful,” he said.

Nevertheless, Beijing and its allies in Hong Kong have refused to relent. When I asked a Chinese diplomat recently whether the refusal to allow any Hong Kong resident to stand for election violates the agreement with Britain to maintain Hong Kong’s political independence, he immediately corrected me. “It wasn’t one country, two systems, but extended autonomy,” he said.

The one country, two systems concept was initially developed by China’s then-premier, Deng Xiaoping, in the 1980s as a plan to peacefully integrate Taiwan into the mainland. It was only later adapted for Hong Kong, and to this day it remains Beijing’s official plan for Taiwan, which Beijing still considers to be part of China.

But as Beijing is now making it clear it will not allow Hong Kong to maintain its democratic system after all, any illusion that Taiwan would one day agree to a similar arrangement has quickly evaporated, along with many of Ma’s other approaches to China. [「一國兩制」原是要垂範台灣，但由於北京已明確地拒絕讓香港維持它的民主制度，所以任何認為台灣有一天會同意接受「一國兩制」的幻想已經迅速地從人間蒸發。]

“I don’t think anyone expected anyone in Taiwan to be wooed into peaceful reunification,” said Susan Shirk, chair of the 21st Century China Program at the University of San Diego. Though both Hong Kong and Taiwan are Chinese, over the years they have each developed an identity separate from that of the mainland, a fact that is apparently lost on Beijing. “I don’t know if they really understand the identity issue,” Shirk said. [聖地牙哥大學的Susan Shirk教授說，香港與台灣都已發展出與中國不同的認同。]

Meanwhile, Beijing has never dropped its threat to forcefully annex Taiwan, and even as commercial ties increased, China has increased the number of missiles targeting Taiwan. As the elections in Taiwan come closer, we must expect new requests from Taiwan for American defensive arms, said Wang. For example, he said, Taiwan may ask for the U.S. blueprints of diesel submarines to build new subs and replenish the aging fleets in Taiwanese shipyards.[北京從來沒有放棄要以武力併吞台灣的圖謀。]

America’s long-term policy has been to defend Taiwan against any Chinese attempt to annex it forcefully and to maintain the island’s defensive capabilities. But since 2001, when the U.S. sold Taiwan eight submarines, no major new American weapons system has been sold to the island. When Taipei tried to buy a new generation of F-16 fighter jets recently, the Obama administration opted to refurbish its older F-16s instead.

“We know that the folks in Taiwan and the mainland watch to see whether there’s the slightest change, and we’re very careful not to change” that arms policy, said Shirk, who was a State Department official in the Clinton era with responsibility for China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mongolia.

Regardless of the delicate diplomatic dance of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, could the souring of relations between Taiwan and China, combined with Beijing’s more assertive policies across the region, deteriorate into a military confrontation? Or even war?

“Expect some rise in tensions, but I don’t think it will result in hostilities,” says New York University’s Cohen, adding, “Then again, I’ve been often wrong before.”

四

在「九合一選舉」結束後，不管老K選得如何，若我們看到馬某故態復萌，又開始對老共及北京送秋波，拋媚眼，甚至背著台灣人和華府，又偷偷地企圖與習近平搞什麼「軍事互信機制」與「和平協議」，我們也無需驚訝，「潘金蓮」與「西門慶」有偷情的衝動，他們慾火焚身，任誰也壓不住。

台灣建州運動發起人周威霖
David C. Chou
Founder, Formosa Statehood Movement
(an organization devoted in current stage to making Taiwan a territorial commonwealth of the United States)