台美人領袖人物對DPP走向的解讀與對台灣前途的悲觀(上)
一
前幾年，在美國的台美人社區與台灣捲起一股妖風，有一個「政治金光黨」自組「政府」，他們每逢台灣的選舉，就加以抵制，他們鼓動選民不要去投票，但由於他們能接觸的選民都是台灣本土人，所以他們無法也沒有能力鼓動藍營民眾不去投票，只能蠱惑綠營的台灣本土人，估計他們大概可以鼓動幾百名綠營的台灣本土人不去投票。即便那些居心叵測的小政客只能讓幾百名台灣人不去投票給民進黨或台聯黨的候選人，雖然對民進黨或台聯黨或台灣人的大局並無影響，但他們的妖言還是會毒害一些台灣人與台美人，所以，無論如何，我們還是要譴責那一小撮「老共的同路人」。
最近一段時間以來，由於民進黨在中國政策上有偏離「台獨黨綱」(或稱「台獨選擇條款」)且有越走越遠的趨勢，讓越來越多令人敬重的台美人領袖與重量級前輩感到失望，他們已為文發出警告，並且說「台灣人不要寄望民進黨會幫助台灣的將來」、「台灣要獨立不能期待民進黨」。不過，我們還不知道他們的觀點是否會帶來巨大的影響，如果他們的看法會導致許多原來支持民進黨的選民在選舉中不出來投票，那這件事情就嚴重了。
說到這裡，我必須先呼籲民進黨人了解，不管這些重量級的台獨導師與前輩說什麼重話，他們的動機都是良善的，他們都是恨鐵不成鋼，我因此希望民進黨上下都要跟往昔一樣敬重他們。
二
我們現在就來讀兩位台美人獨派大老與導師最近所發表的言論，我們先讀住在西岸的張前輩的大作。
［紅柿専欄 No. 17］「不要寄望於民進黨」
張繼昭 (Andy Chang)
1/25/2014
台灣人不要寄望民進黨會幫助台灣的將來。民進黨已經在黨綱裡刪除台獨主張、提案凍結台獨(柯建銘)、說台獨無票(謝長廷)、台獨已經是過去(蘇貞昌)、台灣是中華民國，中華民國是台灣(蔡英文)、又說統一也是選項之一(蔡英文)。捨棄台灣獨立的民進黨，只能說是追求私自權利與個人榮譽的政黨。民進黨早已背離台灣人民的獨立意願。但是到了選舉的時候，民進黨就說它是代表台灣人的政黨，要求人民投票給民進黨的候選人。民進黨取得政權不一定比國民黨好。如果民進黨取得政權執政後開始主張統一，台灣就完蛋了。
幾日前「小英教育基金會」的執行長林全，在蔡英文同意之下率同八個幹部參加中國的對外貿易大學金融學院主辦的討論會。林全等人回來以後與蔡英文共同召開記者會，引起熱烈討論。許多人認為蔡英文是2016年總統選舉的候選人之一，所以她的部下訪問中國引起許多評論，包括：(1)訪問缺乏透明性。為甚麼事前不公開？ (2)訪問的目的是甚麼？ (3)有甚麼結果？有沒有密約？
台灣民眾極度恐懼被中國併吞，但是民進黨卻為了勝選背離民意採親中路線，要參選就必須承認中華民國，取得政權後中華民國的體制還是不變。中國歡迎民進黨捨棄台獨採取親中路線，因為中國可以玩弄國、民兩黨「弄狗互咬」。很多人懷疑民進黨裡有中共的祕密工作人員。
中共一直都沒有放棄併吞台灣的野心。但有些民進黨人還以為親中路線可以贏取政權。親中路線實際上是違背台灣人的意願。中國能做的是選前對台灣人民的恫嚇，但選票還是在台灣人的手裡。親中路線能勝選嗎？人民能相信民進黨嗎？民進黨勝選就能達成台灣獨立嗎？
美國早就表明台灣的將來必須由全體人民決定。如果國民黨的中國人主張統一，美國一定會斷然反對。可是如果自稱台灣人政黨的民進黨也開始主張統一，美國可能誤以為這是台灣人民的意願而放棄台灣。這樣的後果遠遠比國民黨的維持現狀還可怕。
台灣要獨立不能期待民進黨。台灣人民的總意是打倒中華民國，建立不屬於中國的獨立國家。我們必須要認清而且表達「親中路線」是「獨立建國的絆腳石」。
（作者係僑居美國政論家）
再來，我們來讀住在東岸的盧主義前輩的大作。
盧前輩一直住在賓州費城 ，他就是名震海內外的「費城三傑」之一，他的英文造詣極佳(張前輩亦然)，當年他用筆名Li Thian-hok刊登在權威刊物「美國外交季刊」(現在是雙月刊) 的一篇論文”China Impasse”嚇壞了蔣家政權，這對「台灣獨立運動」而言，可是一樁石破天驚的豐功偉業。
為了讓台灣人與台美人鄉親能完整地了解這位重量級的美國「台獨祖師爺」最近對一些議題與事情的看法，我把他最近在「英文台北時報」的一篇文章全部轉貼出來，讓大家閱讀。
"Taiwan is not Republic of China"
By Li Thian-hok (李天福)
1/26/2014
The Taipei Times
Former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) said: “Taiwan is the Republic of China, the Republic of China is Taiwan.”
Recently, she said her formulation should be the basis of a “Taiwan consensus” with which the DPP may engage the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Strictly speaking, Tsai’s statement makes no sense. The Republic of China (ROC) is a government, not a state.
The Chinese state, founded 3,500 years ago along the banks of the Yellow River, is a permanent entity, as opposed to various dynasties and governments which are transitory.
Taiwan is a geographical designation describing an island in the middle of the first island chain in the Western Pacific. It is incorrect to equate two disparate things, a government and an island.
TERRITORIES
Perhaps Tsai’s statement is her shorthand way of saying that the ROC government exercises effective control of Taiwan and that its control is limited to Taiwan.
Narrowly interpreted, the statement does reflect reality.
However, to claim that the ROC is Taiwan and vice versa may mislead many people to believe that the ROC government is sovereign over Taiwan, or that Taiwan is part of a greater China.
After all, the ROC was founded in China and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) claims that ROC territory encompasses both Taiwan and China.
The ROC has no sovereignty over Taiwan. (ROC沒有擁有台灣的主權) )[建州運動對美國政府的立場的理解也是如此]
In the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki, China conceded to Japan in perpetuity full sovereignty over the islands of Formosa and the Pescadores.
In the 1951 San Francisco peace treaty, Japan renounced all right, title and claim to Formosa and the Pescadores, but no beneficiary of Taiwan’s sovereignty was named.
The ROC government may claim sovereignty over Quemoy [Kinmen] and Matsu. (ROC政府只能對金門與馬祖主張主權) )[建州運動對美國政府的立場的理解也是如此]
It has no legitimate claim over Taiwan and the Penghu islands.
The official position of the US is that the international status of Taiwan is undecided and that Taiwan is not part of China.(美國正式的立場是，台灣的國際地位未定且台灣不是中國的一部分)[建州運動對美國政府的立場的理解也是如此]
GLOBAL STATUS
Although the US government does not often enunciate this position for fear of offending Beijing, it has on occasion made its position clear.(雖然美國政府唯恐冒犯北京因而不常宣示他的立場，然而它還是有時會清晰地表達立場。)
In March 2007, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stated in an official letter that in accordance with the UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, the UN considers “Taiwan for all purposes to be an integral part of the People’s Republic of China [PRC].” [盧前輩舉小布希政府於2007年向聯合國就台灣地位表達立場為例，建州運動也常舉此為例。]
In August 2007, the US sent a demarche to Ban stating: “If the UN Secretariat insists on describing Taiwan as a part of the PRC... the United States will be obliged to disassociate itself on a national basis from such a position. It is crystal clear of US policy on Taiwan.”
Although the US has severed diplomatic relations with the ROC, it adopted the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) on April 10, 1979, to regulate relations between the US and the people of Taiwan.[ 盧前輩也舉「台灣關係法」為例。但他論述的力道比較弱，建州派在這方面的論述比較強，因為我們找出「台灣關係法」的立法會議記錄來做為佐證，證明「台灣關係法的立法是建築在美國行政與立法部門對「台灣國際法律地位未定」的認知、共識與基礎上，而盧前輩只毑做出結論。]
The TRA affirmed the preservation and the enhancement of the human rights of all the people on Taiwan as US objectives.
It states that any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means is a threat to the security of the Western Pacific and of grave concern to the US.
Further, it states that it is US policy “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”
The US position that Taiwan’s legal status is yet to be determined and that Taiwan is not part of China is the very foundation of the Taiwan Relations Act.(美國的立場是，台灣的法律地位尚未被確立且台灣不是中國的一部分，這項立場是「台灣關係法」的立法基礎。)
If a majority of the people on Taiwan decide that the ROC does have sovereignty over Taiwan and/or that Taiwan is part of China (either the ROC or PRC), then the TRA will be abrogated, since the US cannot intervene in the domestic affairs of foreign nations.
With the demise of the TRA, annexation of democratic Taiwan by the authoritarian PRC will inevitably follow.(倘若「台灣關係法」消失，民主台灣被威權PRC兼併將成為不可避免的結果。)
So the notion that “Taiwan is the Republic of China, the Republic of China is Taiwan” can have far-reaching implications.(所以，DPP與蔡英文的「台灣是中華民國，中華民國是台灣」的概念會帶來極深遠的影響。)
US POSITION
It can mean that those who abide by the concept are willing to abandon Taiwan’s hard won freedom and accept the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) repressive rule, and are willing to fight on the front line of a future conflict between the People’s Liberation Army and the US and allied democratic nations.( 認同DPP與蔡英文的「台灣是中華民國，中華民國是台灣」這種概念或說法的人，可能意味著
Just as in World War II, the people on Taiwan will then be exposed to massive attack by US and allied forces since the PRC will undoubtedly turn Taiwan into a major military base from which the PLA can project its power into the Pacific and Indian Oceans.(如此，就意味著台灣人將會如同在第二次世界大戰時一樣，，被暴露在美國與其盟國的大規模攻擊之下，因為毫無疑問地，在中國併吞台灣之後，一定會將台灣變成一個主要的軍事基地，共軍將從台灣將其軍力投射到太平洋與印度洋。) [這個看法與預測與建州派相同，換言之，一旦台灣被中國併吞，台灣人將被綁在中國的戰車上，與美軍及日軍為敵，台灣人將淪為美國先進與毀滅性武器的炸射場，美中將在台灣戰區進行高科技的局部性戰爭，而台灣將被毀滅，最會壞的是，台美人將眼睜睜地看台灣被毀滅，也看到台灣人被北京動員，來與美國人及台美人站在對立面。]
On March 22, 2006, Ma, the then-mayor of Taipei, promised in a speech at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington that if elected president of ROC, he would make the negotiation of a peace accord with Beijing his priority.[馬英九早在2006年，就表示要與北京簽署「和平協議」，他已在朝這個目標前進。]
He was then asked whether he owed allegiance to China or Taiwan. His answer: the Republic of China.
This is disingenuous. If he is genuinely loyal to the ROC, how can he strive to surrender Taiwan to the PRC thereby destroying the ROC and thrusting the 23 million Taiwanese into servitude under the CCP’s iron grip?
True to his words, Ma has adopted a policy of incremental capitulation since his ascension to power in 2008.
INTIMIDATION
This unification by stealth is done in many ways: through unilateral dismantling of Taiwan’s national defense; the deliberate weakening of Taiwan’s economy via an outflow to China of capital, technology and skilled manpower; expanding infusion of Chinese immigrants into Taiwan; degrading of Taiwan’s status into a region of the PRC and intimidation of pro-Taiwan activists with threat of imprisonment, fines and bodily harm.
The movement toward a peace accord is increasingly evident.
In a New Year’s Eve article, Institute of Taiwan Studies in Shanghai deputy director Ni Yongjie (倪永杰) predicted that Ma would likely meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) this year. Mainland Affairs Council Minister Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) said this year’s APEC leaders’ meeting in China would be an “appropriate occasion” for such a meeting. Ni added that the meeting would be a “historic event that shakes the world, that changes cross-strait relations, that changes China and even influences the entire world.” (“Cross-strait summit likely, expert say,” Jan. 2, page 3).
ANNEXATION
The likelihood of Taiwan’s annexation by China by the end of Ma’s presidential term in early 2016 is increasing for several reasons.(在馬英九任滿之前，台灣被中國併吞的可能性在增加，盧前輩分析有幾個原因。)
First, Taiwan is weak and susceptible to Beijing’s pressure. After years of excessive investment in China, the island’s economy is stagnant and increasingly dependent on the Chinese market and Beijing’s control.
Taiwan’s military lacks readiness and the morale is low.
By accepting the designation of “Chinese Taipei” to join the World Health Assembly, Taiwan has degraded its international standing.
Second, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is reverting to its autocratic roots.
The freedoms of speech and assembly have been eroded. The judiciary is now KMT’s political tool to harass and destroy any political opposition.
Third, the opposition is split between those who support the ROC framework and dream of electoral victory to seize power in the 2016 presidential election — a virtually impossible task — and those who want to preserve a democratic Taiwan independent of China through overthrow of the ROC government, through civil disobedience, mass protest and other means.(第三個原因是，反對勢力分裂，一派是接受「中華民國體制」以及夢想透過在2016年贏得大選而執政的人士 [盧前輩認為這實際上不可能實現]，另一派是要藉不服從、示威抗議等方式來推翻ROC政府，以確保一個獨立於中國之外的民主台灣的人士。)
Thus, there is no cohesive, effective force to stem the drift toward ruin.(因此，台灣不存在一個團結一致的、有效的力量來阻止台灣走向毀滅。)
Fourth, the main opposition party, the DPP, is increasingly copying the KMT’s pro-unification agenda. Former Straits Exchange Foundation president Hong Chi-chang (洪奇昌) will reportedly advocate for the establishment of a committee to promote peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait.(第四，台灣的主要反對黨正在複製國民黨的統一議程。)
Hong will also endorse former premier Frank Hsieh’s (謝長廷) “two sides, two constitutions” proposal (“Heated debate expected at DPP meeting,” Jan. 8, page 3).
Cutting through the fog of coded phrasing, the proposal is that the DPP should now compete with the KMT to advance the signing of a peace accord and that after Taiwan’s surrender, the nation should be governed by a variant of the “one country, two systems” model.
DEMOCRACY
Since Hong is a heavyweight leader of DPP’s most influential faction, the New Tide, his initiative must be taken seriously.
Finally, the next two years will be the most opportune time for the PRC to achieve the annexation of Taiwan because Taiwan’s potential ally the US is headed by President Barack Obama, who is most deferential in engaging with Beijing and who, unlike previous US presidents, has not praised Taiwan for its democratic achievement, and unlike the US Congress, has failed to reaffirm the Taiwan Relations Act on its 30th anniversary.[最後一點，盧前輩認為，今後兩年將是中國併吞台灣的最佳時機，因為美國是由歐巴馬主政，一般而言，台美人與華美人不同，台美人的菁英領導普遍不信任歐巴馬，在大選時，沒有投他現在普遍認為，他會配合馬英九與習近平，並出賣台灣人。]
Beijing can easily assume that Obama will acquiesce in a peaceful absorption of Taiwan by the PRC.(北京能很輕易地假定，歐巴馬對中國和平併吞台灣一事將會給予默許。)
The survival of democratic Taiwan is increasingly precarious.(民主台灣的存活已逐漸變成危險。)
Those who want to keep the nation’s freedom must quickly develop the capacity to effectively resist the signing of a peace accord. They must loudly demonstrate they want an independent and free Taiwan, aligned with all democratic nations of the world. They must clearly declare: Taiwan is not the Republic of China, Taiwan is not part of China.(欲維護台灣的自由的人必須迅速發展出有效反制國共簽訂「和平協議」的能力，他們必須大聲地喊出「他們要一個獨立與自由的、與世界上所有民主國家站在同一陣線的台灣」，他們必須很清楚地宣示「台灣不是中華民國，台灣不是中國的一部分」。)
(Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania in the US.)
(待續)
台灣建州運動發起人周威霖
David C. Chou
Founder, Formosa Statehood Movement
(an organization devoted in current stage to making Taiwan a territorial commonwealth of the United States)
David C. Chou
Founder, Formosa Statehood Movement
(an organization devoted in current stage to making Taiwan a territorial commonwealth of the United States)
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