老共海軍跑到印尼海域兩個海峽去演練、探底與挑釁(下)
四
「自由時報」可能沒有報導老共海軍這項挑釁行動，帶但它報導了澳大利亞國防事務與戰略的專家Prof. Paul Dibb對此事件的評論:
「澳洲學者︰中國海軍是紙老虎 」
自由時報
2014-03-10
〔編譯詹立群╱綜合報導〕澳洲國立大學戰略學榮譽教授狄布（Dibb），七日在「澳洲人報」發表文章，以「[海上操練揚波]中國海軍只是紙老虎」為題，說中國海軍沒打過現代海空戰，缺乏遠程境外操兵能力、打不了持久戰，若槓上美國海軍肯定吃敗仗。
文章稱，近來三艘中國軍艦行經印尼爪哇島與聖誕島間，而新造中國航母派駐南海都引發預期中的過度反應；事實上，這些都不是大事，也絕非預告中國海軍在西太平洋上的主導優勢。
美國精良海軍領先群雄，中國還差得遠，中國還需要很長時間，才能擁有境外遠程用兵的能力、進行海上持久戰。
狄布說，現在中國高度依賴海上貿易，未來將更可能興致勃勃地要保衛每一條海上貿易路線；但沒有一個國家能做得到，最好是與「朋友」分攤責任。
中國的問題是，沒什麼值得一提的「朋友」，除非有人認為北韓或巴基斯坦靠得住；但它在東海威脅日本、在南海恫嚇菲、越與馬來西亞，讓事情更糟。
狄布說，未來中國恐因日益壯大的海軍軍力而欺壓東南[亞]國家，希望看到此區域有人挺身—像是澳洲—抵抗中國霸權；由於美國海軍比中國強，澳洲應該鼓勵美國海軍多多造訪此海域，若華盛頓方面出現對於西澳[洲]海軍[設施]的任何要求，澳洲應該給予正面回應。
五
Prof. Dibb是澳洲重量級的戰略專家與學者(曾擔任澳大利亞國防部副部長)，他所發表的著述深受建州派與自由世界各國戰略研究界的重視與喜愛。---Read More---
我們現在就請台灣與台美鄉親們直接來讀他在澳洲一個主流媒體發表的一篇文章，不透過任何人的翻譯或任何媒體記者的編譯:
“Manoeuvres Make Waves, But in Truth
China's Navy Is a Paper Tiger”
By Paul Dibb
The Australian
3/6/2014
The recent transit of three Chinese warships between Java and Christmas Island, as well as the new Chinese aircraft carrier being deployed in the South China Sea, are causing predictable overreaction.
The fact is that neither of these are momentous events and they certainly do not herald the coming of Chinese naval superiority in the Western Pacific.
China is still way behind advanced navies, such as those of the US. It will be a long time before it has a true distant power projection capability able to wage sustained naval warfare. It has no history of carrying out modern warfare at sea or in the air and if it confronts the US on the high seas it will certainly lose.
None of this is to deny that China is making some quite impressive progress in its naval modernisation. That is only natural for an emerging power that until recently has not had a navy worth talking about. China is now highly dependent on seaborne trade and will be increasingly interested in securing its trade routes where possible. The fact is, however, that no nation is capable of defending all its trade routes. The best one can do is to co-operate with like-minded friends and share the burden of maritime security.
The big strategic problem for China is that it has very few friends in our region worth talking about - unless you think North Korea and Pakistan are reliable security partners. It is a strategic loner.
China is only making matters worse for itself by threatening Japan in the East China Sea and The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea.
A prominent Chinese academic has recently declared with regard to China's territorial rights in the South China Sea that it "is entitled to use all means at its disposal to settle disputes to its satisfaction" and this includes "employing its full capacities to assert sovereignty". Such provocative statements would not be made without official endorsement in a tightly regimented society such as China's.
So, we have to be concerned that China is starting to throw its weight about and that it will increasingly have the military capabilities to bully smaller powers, especially in Southeast Asia.
That is of concern to Australia because we want to see a Southeast Asia that resists Chinese hegemony.
Japan is in a much stronger position because it still has a highly competent navy and air force and is taking steps to be able to handle Chinese military provocations, short of all-out war.
This is where the US comes in because it has an infinitely more powerful navy in the Pacific than China. We should encourage Washington to reinforce its presence in our region. In the upcoming visit by Barack Obama in April to Japan, South Korea, The Philippines and Malaysia, it will be important for the US President to demonstrate tangibly the so-called pivot to Asia.
Australia can usefully assist here, not only by facilitating the presence of US marines in Darwin but also by responding positively to any US requests for greater use of our naval facilities in Western Australia and the future use of Cocos Islands.
It is important, however, that we keep the expansion of China's naval capabilities in perspective.
While prudent steps must be taken to demonstrate to Beijing the superiority of US naval capabilities, there are serious questions about whether China will be the dominant naval power that some are drumming up.
China is a land power with enormous domestic challenges ahead that will constrain its strategic ambitions.
Robert Ross of Harvard University has pointed out that China's maritime power will be limited by the constraints experienced by all land powers: extensive challenges to territorial security (China shares borders with 14 countries) and a corresponding commitment to a large ground force capability.
China spends as much on internal security as on defence.
Historically, land powers such as Russia, Germany and France have repeatedly failed to secure maritime power. The optimal maritime strategy for a continental power such as China is what is called access-denial capability to its maritime approaches, which is precisely what China is undertaking. This was also the Soviet Union's maritime strategy for nearly three decades.
And like the former Soviet Union, China has limited geographical access to open seas, which can easily be constrained by superior Western detection and tracking capabilities.
Chinese nationalism is driving grandiose and costly expectations for a large blue-water navy, which is a traditional symbol of great power status. But now is not the time for exaggerated assessments of Chinese naval power or breathless proclamations that Australia's strategic environment has radically changed.
We have heard all that before when prime minister Malcolm Fraser proclaimed that the arrival of the Soviet navy in the Indian Ocean in the 1970s heralded a serious threat to the West's oil supplies. And where is Russia's navy now?
(Paul Dibb is professor emeritus of strategic studies at the Australian National University. He is a former deputy secretary for Defence, director of the Joint Intelligence Organisation and head of the National Assessments Staff.)
台灣建州運動發起人周威霖
David C. Chou
Founder, Formosa Statehood Movement
(an organization devoted in current stage to making Taiwan a territorial commonwealth of the United States)
「自由時報」可能沒有報導老共海軍這項挑釁行動，帶但它報導了澳大利亞國防事務與戰略的專家Prof. Paul Dibb對此事件的評論:
「澳洲學者︰中國海軍是紙老虎 」
自由時報
2014-03-10
〔編譯詹立群╱綜合報導〕澳洲國立大學戰略學榮譽教授狄布（Dibb），七日在「澳洲人報」發表文章，以「[海上操練揚波]中國海軍只是紙老虎」為題，說中國海軍沒打過現代海空戰，缺乏遠程境外操兵能力、打不了持久戰，若槓上美國海軍肯定吃敗仗。
文章稱，近來三艘中國軍艦行經印尼爪哇島與聖誕島間，而新造中國航母派駐南海都引發預期中的過度反應；事實上，這些都不是大事，也絕非預告中國海軍在西太平洋上的主導優勢。
美國精良海軍領先群雄，中國還差得遠，中國還需要很長時間，才能擁有境外遠程用兵的能力、進行海上持久戰。
狄布說，現在中國高度依賴海上貿易，未來將更可能興致勃勃地要保衛每一條海上貿易路線；但沒有一個國家能做得到，最好是與「朋友」分攤責任。
中國的問題是，沒什麼值得一提的「朋友」，除非有人認為北韓或巴基斯坦靠得住；但它在東海威脅日本、在南海恫嚇菲、越與馬來西亞，讓事情更糟。
狄布說，未來中國恐因日益壯大的海軍軍力而欺壓東南[亞]國家，希望看到此區域有人挺身—像是澳洲—抵抗中國霸權；由於美國海軍比中國強，澳洲應該鼓勵美國海軍多多造訪此海域，若華盛頓方面出現對於西澳[洲]海軍[設施]的任何要求，澳洲應該給予正面回應。
五
Prof. Dibb是澳洲重量級的戰略專家與學者(曾擔任澳大利亞國防部副部長)，他所發表的著述深受建州派與自由世界各國戰略研究界的重視與喜愛。
我們現在就請台灣與台美鄉親們直接來讀他在澳洲一個主流媒體發表的一篇文章，不透過任何人的翻譯或任何媒體記者的編譯:
“Manoeuvres Make Waves, But in Truth
China's Navy Is a Paper Tiger”
By Paul Dibb
The Australian
3/6/2014
The recent transit of three Chinese warships between Java and Christmas Island, as well as the new Chinese aircraft carrier being deployed in the South China Sea, are causing predictable overreaction.
The fact is that neither of these are momentous events and they certainly do not herald the coming of Chinese naval superiority in the Western Pacific.
China is still way behind advanced navies, such as those of the US. It will be a long time before it has a true distant power projection capability able to wage sustained naval warfare. It has no history of carrying out modern warfare at sea or in the air and if it confronts the US on the high seas it will certainly lose.
None of this is to deny that China is making some quite impressive progress in its naval modernisation. That is only natural for an emerging power that until recently has not had a navy worth talking about. China is now highly dependent on seaborne trade and will be increasingly interested in securing its trade routes where possible. The fact is, however, that no nation is capable of defending all its trade routes. The best one can do is to co-operate with like-minded friends and share the burden of maritime security.
The big strategic problem for China is that it has very few friends in our region worth talking about - unless you think North Korea and Pakistan are reliable security partners. It is a strategic loner.
China is only making matters worse for itself by threatening Japan in the East China Sea and The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea.
A prominent Chinese academic has recently declared with regard to China's territorial rights in the South China Sea that it "is entitled to use all means at its disposal to settle disputes to its satisfaction" and this includes "employing its full capacities to assert sovereignty". Such provocative statements would not be made without official endorsement in a tightly regimented society such as China's.
So, we have to be concerned that China is starting to throw its weight about and that it will increasingly have the military capabilities to bully smaller powers, especially in Southeast Asia.
That is of concern to Australia because we want to see a Southeast Asia that resists Chinese hegemony.
Japan is in a much stronger position because it still has a highly competent navy and air force and is taking steps to be able to handle Chinese military provocations, short of all-out war.
This is where the US comes in because it has an infinitely more powerful navy in the Pacific than China. We should encourage Washington to reinforce its presence in our region. In the upcoming visit by Barack Obama in April to Japan, South Korea, The Philippines and Malaysia, it will be important for the US President to demonstrate tangibly the so-called pivot to Asia.
Australia can usefully assist here, not only by facilitating the presence of US marines in Darwin but also by responding positively to any US requests for greater use of our naval facilities in Western Australia and the future use of Cocos Islands.
It is important, however, that we keep the expansion of China's naval capabilities in perspective.
While prudent steps must be taken to demonstrate to Beijing the superiority of US naval capabilities, there are serious questions about whether China will be the dominant naval power that some are drumming up.
China is a land power with enormous domestic challenges ahead that will constrain its strategic ambitions.
Robert Ross of Harvard University has pointed out that China's maritime power will be limited by the constraints experienced by all land powers: extensive challenges to territorial security (China shares borders with 14 countries) and a corresponding commitment to a large ground force capability.
China spends as much on internal security as on defence.
Historically, land powers such as Russia, Germany and France have repeatedly failed to secure maritime power. The optimal maritime strategy for a continental power such as China is what is called access-denial capability to its maritime approaches, which is precisely what China is undertaking. This was also the Soviet Union's maritime strategy for nearly three decades.
And like the former Soviet Union, China has limited geographical access to open seas, which can easily be constrained by superior Western detection and tracking capabilities.
Chinese nationalism is driving grandiose and costly expectations for a large blue-water navy, which is a traditional symbol of great power status. But now is not the time for exaggerated assessments of Chinese naval power or breathless proclamations that Australia's strategic environment has radically changed.
We have heard all that before when prime minister Malcolm Fraser proclaimed that the arrival of the Soviet navy in the Indian Ocean in the 1970s heralded a serious threat to the West's oil supplies. And where is Russia's navy now?
(Paul Dibb is professor emeritus of strategic studies at the Australian National University. He is a former deputy secretary for Defence, director of the Joint Intelligence Organisation and head of the National Assessments Staff.)
台灣建州運動發起人周威霖
David C. Chou
Founder, Formosa Statehood Movement
(an organization devoted in current stage to making Taiwan a territorial commonwealth of the United States)
It is a pleasure and an honor to be here at the University of Sydney to give the annual Michael Hintze Lecture in International Security. I would like to thank Alan Dupont for...
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