一
Moldova這個小國，相信絕大多數的台灣住民都沒概念，甚至
我們以前談過外高加索地區的小國喬治亞(請大家再度閱讀在底下的
台灣本屬美國的勢力範圍，但「新中華邪惡帝國」野心勃勃，企圖進
Moldova在這個星期日(比台灣晚一天)舉辦四年一度的國會
為了方便起見，建州運動現在藉西方媒體的報導，來向鄉親們報告與
二
我們先讀「華爾街日報」的報導:
“Moldova Vote Tests East-West Tension” (「Moldova投票測試東方與西方的緊張關係」，網路版的標
---Pro-Russia Candidate Barred From Election After Alleged Ties to FSB Emerge
‘The Cold War is back and Moldova is a key battlefield.’ (冷戰已回來，而Moldova是一個關鍵性的戰場)
—Oazu Nikolai, chairman of the Institute for Public Policy
‘We can’t underestimate the importance of this vote.’
—Prime Minister Iurie Leancă
By JOE PARKINSON
The Wall Street Journal
Nov. 29, 2014
CHISINAU, Moldova—A Cold War-style spy saga involving guns, gangsters and the Russian security services is roiling this tiny ex-Soviet state before its election, which has become crucial battleground in the tug of war between Europe and Moscow. [一個牽涉槍械、黑幫與俄羅斯安全機關的冷戰形態的諜報戰正在選
Moldova’s election commission on Thursday barred Renato Usatii, a populist pro-Russian candidate, from running in Sunday’s parliamentary elections after a leaked audio recording appeared to show him discussing his close connections to the FSB, the Russian security service and successor to the KGB. [Moldova的選舉委員會在11/27/
Government officials and political leaders here have long alleged that Mr. Usatii is a front for Russian secret services and criminal gangs—part of a multipronged Russian plan to get control over the country, which neighbors Ukraine. [Moldova政府官員與政治領袖們長期以來，指控Usati
The audio recording surfaced as Moldovan police unearthed a cache of weapons and military supplies, including grenade launchers and rifles, in raids on members of a pro-Russian antifascist movement.
Police arrested five members of the organization, but the group’s leader, Grigori Petrenko, fled to Moscow, according to government officials. Mr. Petrenko, who couldn’t be reached to comment, is also a senior member of Mr. Usatii’s Patria, or Homeland, party. In Moscow, there was no official comment on the news.
The Moldovan election commission said it canceled Patria’s electoral registration and would confiscate some 8 million Leu (about $533,000) illegally donated from abroad to finance its campaign. Representatives for the Patria party declined to comment.
Mr. Usatii, a 36-year old millionaire, didn’t dispute the authenticity of the audio recording but said his comments were taken out of context and that he would appeal the election commission’s decision. He also vowed to organize “street meetings” with his supporters. Mr. Usatii made his fortune in Russia and exploded onto the Moldovan political scene this year, with polls show him winning up to 18% of the national vote with his populist pro-Moscow message.
The recording and police raids created a scandal just two days before parliamentary elections were set to begin in this landlocked country of 3.5 million. Sunday’s elections are widely seen as the most important vote since Moldova declared independence from the crumbling Soviet Union in 1991.
“We can’t underestimate the importance of this vote. Whatever the result this won’t be over on Monday—it will be the beginning of another difficult chapter,” pro-European Prime Minister Iurie Leancă said in an interview Thursday. “The key ambition has to be to secure the European path…but preventing destabilization has also to be a matter of concern to us.” [親歐的Moldova總理Iurie Lienca說 : 我們不能低估此次國會選舉的重要性，不管此次選舉的結果如何，它
Early polls have shown voters are sharply divided. [選前的民調顯示選民的意向分歧。]
Moldova, one of Europe’s smallest and poorest nations on the border with Ukraine, has emerged as a new front in the West’s struggle to fend off what it sees as the Kremlin’s effort to pull a former soviet neighbor back into its sphere of influence. [Moldova已經成為西方對俄羅斯鬥爭的前線，西方試圖要防
“The Cold War is back and Moldova is a key battlefield,” said Oazu Nantoi, chairman of the Institute for Public Policy, a Moldova-based think tank. “The situation in Ukraine has created a very dangerous situation for the country and there is a prospect of instability and provocations.”
Highlighting Western fears that the Ukraine conflict is expanding into a broader struggle for power in the region, German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week warned Russia not to interfere in post-Soviet states, including Moldova. [德國總理Angela Merkel上週警告俄羅斯，不要干預包括Moldova在內的
A victory for the incumbent pro-European bloc, which has been in power since 2009, could cement the country’s western orientation. In June, the government signed a trade and political pact with the EU that prompted Russia to block imports of Moldova’s most popular products and warn of more punitive sanctions. [從2009年起就開始執政的親歐洲政團若在這次選舉獲勝，將會
An inconclusive result or a victory for pro-Russian parties would be embarrassing for the West and could spark protests by rival factions in the capital reminiscent the those seen more than a year ago in Ukraine, diplomats and Moldovan politicians said.
In the Moldavan capital, Chisinau, election billboards speak to the stark choice voters face: at one intersection, posters from the pro-Russian Socialist Party show party leaders posing with Russian President Vladimir Putin . Next to those, a poster from the pro-European Liberal party features a giant flag of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Moldova has moved closer to the European mainstream than any other ex-Soviet republic, barring the Baltic states, and the three-party Alliance for European Integration has vowed to continue along that path. The EU now accounts for 45% of Moldova’s trade, and Russia just a quarter. Yet Russia remains a dominant player in local politics: the majority of Moldovans watch Russian television channels and Moscow retains a military base in Transnistria, a breakaway territory that seceded from Moldova after a short war following the collapse of the Soviet Union.[除了波羅的海三小國之外，Moldova已是前蘇
But as East-West tensions have intensified over Ukraine, Moldovans are taking increasingly entrenched positions. [但是，由於東西兩陣營在烏克蘭問題上的衝突激化，所以Mold
“We belong with Russia and we can’t ignore it. For many years we’ve seen growing western influence on Moldovan politics, but its results are not good. Look at the corruption,” said Aleksandr Rosca, a student from Chisinau. [有一名學生說: 我們屬於俄羅斯，我們不能忽視它，多年來，我們一直看到西方對M
(以下的內容只有網路版有)
Others worry a conflict similar to the one in Ukraine could break out in Moldova. [由於Moldova內部有親俄派，所以有些Moldova人擔
“Its getting dangerous and I’m afraid that if we turn our back on Europe we will have a Maidan in Chisinau,” said Sergiu Galusca a 31 year-old winemaker, referring to the Kiev square that spawned Ukraine’s pro-European protest movement. [一名Moldova人表示，情況變得危險，倘若我們背離了歐洲
If pro-European Alliance parties win enough votes to regain a majority in the 101-seat parliament or are forced into a coalition with the powerful Communist Party, Moldova is likely to stay on course for Europe, according to Nicu Popescu of the European Union Institute for Security Studies.
A strong showing by the Socialist Party, whose campaign slogan is “Together with Russia,” could derail that pledge.
Socialist Party leader Igor Dodon said the charges against Mr. Usatii were concocted by Moldova’s government with help from Brussels and Washington to prevent a center-left coalition taking power.
三
我們再張貼一篇，請鄉親們參考，這一篇我不準備做重點翻譯或意譯
底下這一篇出現在平面的The Financial Times之上，日期是11/28/
“Moldova voters face stark choice between east and west”
By Henry Foy in Chisinau
The Financial Times
November 27, 2014
On one side of the biggest junction in Moldova’s capital city, an election billboard featuring Russian President Vladimir Putin looms above the traffic. On the other, one bearing a Nato flag implores drivers to join the “EU family”.
This is 2014, not 1989. But the people of this former Soviet republic again face a stark choice between east and west, between Moscow and Brussels.
“This election is critical and crucial for the future of the country,” Moldova’s prime minister Iurie Leanca told the Financial Times. “Do we want to move the country forward? It is a civilisational choice.”
Moldovans will go to the polls on Sunday for a parliamentary election that has become a referendum on the country’s geopolitical future and a potential turning point in the EU’s eastern expansion efforts.
Russia’s support for separatist rebels in Ukraine, which borders Moldova on three sides and shares its Soviet history and economic ties to Moscow, has both crystallised the divisions between the two political ideologies and raised the ballot’s stakes.
“Do you want a European state? Or do you want a state of instability and conflict like we are witnessing now in Ukraine?” Mr Leanca told voters at a campaign rally this week in a rural village near the Romanian border. “We cannot hesitate or pause. Ukraine is a lesson for us.”
Based on economic performance alone, Mr Leanca would seem to have a strong case: Moldova’s gross domestic product has grown 20 per cent over the past four years.
Chisinau, the capital, is still dominated by crumbling Soviet tower blocks and potholed pavements. Just a mile outside the city, double lane roads cut through bare countryside where horse and carts are typical. Progress is visible, though, in the form of new western style motorways and the government has digitised bureaucratic tasks, such as permit applications.
Moscow, which ruled Moldova from 1944 to 1991, and is trying to recruit the state to its own trading bloc, is hitting back. It has imposed bans in the past year on Moldovan wine, one of the country’s biggest exports, vegetables and meat.
The damage has been estimated at about $150m, a considerable toll for a poor country of just 3.5m people. As the supplier of all Moldova’s gas, and its biggest foreign investor and trading partner, Moscow has still more leverage.
According to a Gallup survey conducted last month, 57 per cent of Moldovans see Russia as the country’s most important economic partner.
Days before the vote, the ruling coalition, which came to power in 2009, held a slim lead in the polls but many voters were undecided. Anger over corruption and political infighting mean the coalition’s re-election is far from certain. Moldova fell to 102nd place in Transparency International’s 2013 Corruption Index, with fraud in the country cited as “systematic in nature”.
“It is not impossible that the government could lose,” Nicu Popescu, senior analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies think-tank, said of Sunday’s vote.
Moscow already has a foothold in Moldova: Transnistria. The pro-Russian region sought to break away from the country after fighting a war with the government in the early 1990s. Under the protection of Russian troops, it now exists as an autonomous but unrecognised state, a haven for smugglers of food, fuel and even people.
Since the Ukraine conflict intensified, with Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in March, Moldovan politicians and western diplomats have watched Transnistria with dread, fearing that it could become the next focus of Mr Putin’s expansionist ambitions.
But Moscow’s influence is also evident on the streets of Chisinau, where pro-Russian campaigners in red tents hand out newspapers filled with pictures of Mr Putin and the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, which is dominant in Moldova.
Many Moldovans rely on money earned in Russia by relatives. Studies estimate that about 40 per cent of the country’s working age population lives overseas, mostly in Russia. Their remittances account for about a quarter of the country’s $8bn GDP.
In Chisinau’s coffee shops, middle class professionals discuss the huge power of pro-Kremlin propaganda broadcast on the country’s mainly Russian television channels.
The Ukraine crisis has prompted the government to accelerate – not delay – its EU campaign. Chisinau signed an association agreement with Brussels this summer, ahead of schedule.
“There was an acknowledgment after the invasion of Ukraine that there might never be a better time for Moldova to run and catch that EU bus,” said one foreign diplomat in Chisinau.
As the country’s most popular politician, Mr Leanca may be the pro-EU camp’s most valuable asset. His party, whose slogan is “Forward to Europe”, hopes to apply next year for EU membership.
“Things are changing. The government is getting smarter, slowly,” said Andrei Zuza, a Moldovan who left a consulting job in London to return to the country to set up a small business. “But the corruption is still there. And that scares some people off.”
A pro-Russian party, led by businessman Renato Usatii, which was polling as high as 15 per cent, was banned this week by the election commission from the ballot for receiving overseas funding.
If those votes move to other leftwing parties that have shown pro-Russian leanings, or the notoriously flaky Communist Party outperforms expectations, a hung parliament or shift in power is possible.
For Andrian Candu, the country’s economy minister, such an outcome would be devastating. “This will stop the country’s development and move the country to the dark side of history,” he said. “The most important thing is not about the parties or the people. It’s about the future of this country. And that has to be as a member of the European Union.”
“I’m convinced this is a setup—they are doing this to introduce a state of hysteria. This is dirty tactics and they are preparing massive falsifications,” Mr. Dodon said.
According to western diplomats, Mr. Usatii and his Russian backers have profited from disgust with Moldova’s corrupt political class and gained youth votes by spending lavishly on a campaign that included free concerts featuring Russian pop stars. His populist platform included pledges to reverse privatizations and prevent Moldova from joining the EU.
In a veiled reference to Russia, Moldova’s security services last week warned that external actors were attempting to destabilize the country in the run-up to elections. Government officials said the intelligence and law-enforcement services were expanding their operations to try to preserve stability.
Vladimir Voronin, former president and chairman of the Communist Party, which has governed in various coalitions and could hold the key to Moldova’s next government, said Mr. Usatii was a symptom of a mounting geopolitical battle on Moldovan territory.
“This has happened because Moldova is becoming a battleground for east and western interests,” Mr. Voronin said. “My fear is that after the elections we could have protests, and there could be some actions that could get away from our control.”
四
由於2016年台灣的總統大選可說已開始起跑，因此，接下來，「
為了讓台灣與台美鄉親們充分了卜睿哲的發言事件始末與發言內容，
“2012年華府在關鍵時刻介入台灣大選的事件會在2016年重
//
這個事件最近再被大家熟知的卜睿哲談起，並再度引起台灣人與台美
前美國在台協會理事主席卜睿哲(Dr. Richard Bush III)於2014年9月12日在參加一項由台灣的陸委會所贊助
美國國務院副發言人哈芙(Marie Haff)15日在例行新聞簡報會上答覆記者詢問時強調，美國不
卜睿哲於15日早上另又出席了「日台關係研討會」，在會後接受媒
由於茲事體大，自由時報駐華府的特派員當然對此事特別加以關切，
卜睿哲顯然知道他的談話引起台灣人與台美人的嚴重關切，所以他也
國務院副發言人與國務院東亞局發言人對卜睿哲的談話事件的發言，
在日前主持研討會的「戰略與國際研究中心」（CSIS）高級顧問
根據我對美國政府的運作與美台互動的觀察，我認為葛來儀的評論是
我個人對卜睿哲的談話或談話事件有一點看法: 美國對2016年台灣大選，應該還會表達意見或立場，若不是公開
對於卜睿哲的談話，民進黨主席蔡英文的外交首席幕僚—民進黨秘書
吳大使的回應十分得體與得宜，連卜睿哲在其發表的聲明中都指出，
對絕大多數的台美人而言，民進黨或台派能贏得大選，重新執政，持
(作者為前民進黨僑務部主任、前台灣國大代表，現為台美人歷史協
五
「台美人歷史協會」的楊會長在做說明時，沒有使用英文資料，現在
“Taiwan’s Elections and United States Interests”
By Richard C. Bush III
The Brookings Institution
September 15, 2014 3:09pm
http://www.brookings.edu/
On Friday, September 12, Brooking’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies convened a conference on China-Taiwan relations, in cooperation with Taiwan’s Association of Foreign Relations. The presentations were stimulating and the audience participation was good (a transcript of the event should be posted soon). [在9/12/
As it happened, I received a lot of coverage in the Taiwan media for some remarks I made at the end of my presentation, concerning how the United States government would approach the 2016 Taiwan presidential election. [我在座談會中的最後那一部份的發言得到台灣媒體很多的報導與評
Before I address why I’m puzzled, here is what I said[在卜解釋他為何困惑之前，他先回顧他到底在座談會中說
What I am prepared to say with some confidence [about the 2016 Taiwan election] is that the U.S. government, at some time and in some way, will express itself on the implications of the 2016 election for U.S. interests. Now, I recognize, because I lived this at one time, that Washington is caught in a bit of a dilemma here. On the one hand, we have a general principle that it’s the voters of friendly democratic countries who should be the ones to pick their leaders at the ballot box, and that the United States should not try influence their votes by expressing a preference for one candidate or the other. On the other hand, the United States does have interests in the policies of any elected leadership, whether it’s Taiwan or a lot of other places. [我有一些信心準備要就2016年台灣的選舉的事說的是: 美國政府會在未來某個時刻以及以某種方式，表明2016年台灣的
So, in spite of this dilemma Washington has not been quiet. And let me just let me give you a few examples. 1996: the Clinton Administration, through its actions, made a statement of sorts. In December 1999, I myself made a public statement in Taiwan where I sort of laid out both sides of our view about Taiwan’s democratic election. Almost exactly four years later, another person named Bush made his statement and that was clearly critical of Chen Shui-bian’s policies. In September 2007, actually seven years ago yesterday, my friend Tom Christensen made a long and detailed critique of the Chen Administration’s policies and the DPP’s strategy for the 2008 election. Almost exactly four years later, September 2011, the Obama Administration conveyed its views through the Financial Times. So this is something we do. We feel there is a need for us to express our views on how our interests will be affected by Taiwan’s elections. And to say nothing, as some in Taiwan might want us to do, is actually to make a statement as well. [即便華府陷入這樣的兩難，它還是始終沒有保持沉默，他舉出幾個
One story, filed from Washington, reported that I said that “the U.S. was likely to try to ‘influence’ Taiwan's 2016 presidential elections. While he did not speculate about what might happen, Bush indicated that Washington would declare a preference for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate because there were lingering doubts about the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) cross-strait policies.” Another story claimed I said that Washington might “try to sway vote in the 2016 presidential election.”
As can be seen from the text of my remarks, the U.S. government clearly understands the tension between not stating support for a particular candidate and expressing itself on the U.S.interests at stake, when there are interests at stake (I have felt that tension myself). I provided the examples where we have expressed views in the past on the implications of the election for U.S. interests, by way of predicting that it would happen again. It was up to Taiwan voters in the past to decide what those statements meant and how to weight them in their voting decisions. It will be up to Taiwan voters to do so in the future, which is as it should be. But I don’t see any basis for extrapolating from my actual remarks to conclude that I was predicting that the U.S. government would side with one party over another. [從我的談話，您無法做出如下的結論: 我曾預測美國政府將來會在台灣的大選中選邊。]
Richard C. Bush III
Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center
六
卜睿哲發言的真正意含與他真正的意圖是什麼，目前我們暫時難以臆
台灣建州運動發起人周威霖
David C. Chou
Founder, Formosa Statehood Movement
(an organization devoted in current stage to making Taiwan a territorial commonwealth of the United States)
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